Climate Change Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Water Planning Studies: Motivation, Methodologies, and a User's Guide to Applications
نویسندگان
چکیده
Designing Appropriate Linkages Between Hydrologic Research and Water Planning Studies Potentially significant changes in regional climate over the time horizon for water resources planning may create new challenges for risk assessment and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. An important first step in assessing vulnerabilities to an altered climate (and ultimately creating viable response strategies) is understanding the implications of potential changes in hydrologic variability. In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), climate change is likely to produce reductions in snowpack which would reduce summer and fall streamflows, and increase flows in winter. Hydrologic models can be used to predict such changes, however planning functions at many water management agencies tend to be linked to specific periods of the historic streamflow record and internally developed water management models. Incorporation of climate change into water planning studies has therefore been somewhat hampered by the lack of freely available streamflow scenarios that produce appropriate perturbations to the specific historic record(s) of interest. Given a set of adjustments to the historic streamflow record that reflect alternative future climates, there is little additional cost associated with including this information in an existing water planning study. The streamflow scenarios are simply substituted for the historic flow record.
منابع مشابه
Climate Change Impacts: An Assessment for Water Resources Planning and Management in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S
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